There are reports that there are fractures in the Western Alliance. You think? About half of the energy needs for Europe come from Russia. So unless the United States is willing to pick up that slack (hydro fracturing is your friend at this point, and of national security even) Europe is pretty much a hostage.
So this is just one more map of why things are where they are.
I remember many years ago a teacher of mine actually going into the, if and when there is a crisis crack the atlas open. Geography, and resources are pretty much self explanatory. Because of this, unless there is the miscalculation to end all miscalculations, such as oh April or June of 1914, there will be a lot of chest pounding and no war. It is ironic we are 100 years from that war, and it is even more ironic that it is the Balkans once again.