The State of the Republican Race

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Feb 23, 2015 (San Diego) Yesterday we looked at the democratic race, so it is time to look at the Republican race. In some ways this one is easier to determine. Donald J Trump is well on his way to becoming the nominee, and perhaps there is already panic among establishment republicans.

The only establishment candidate that remains, is Senator Marco Rubio, and so far Rubio has not performed well. If this was a race between him and Senator Ted Cruz, it would be not unlike the Democratic race, a very competitive race. Right now, current trends, Trump will be the nominee.

His message is resonating with conservative and very conservative voters. These are voters who are angry at the party because they feel used by the party. Yes, vote for us and we will do all these things that matter to you, but in the end we don’t. So those voters are going to the polls for Trump. Even some evangelicals are breaking for Trump, and do not care if he has somewhat more progressive views than they do on social issues.

There is another aspect to the Republican primaries. Like 2008 for the democrats, their turnout is though the roof. They are on a mission to take back the White House. Given that American voters tend to vote the other party in every 8 years that is not that surprising. If tends maintain for the general election, whoever the republicans nominate will likely win in November.

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