March 2, 2016 (San Diego) So the votes have been tallied and the races are over. We are hardly concerned with how much of a massacre each state was, or for whom. We will leave this to the Pundits. Well except for one state, and that is the State of Vermont where the Hillary Clinton Campaign did not even reach the 15 percent margin to get a delegate. So all delegates went to Bernie Sanders (VT-I), all 10 of them.
What we are concerned with are those delegate counts. As of now, the Democrats stand this way. Clinton has won 576 delegates and Sanders was won 386. We are not going to bother with the super delegate count, since we are seeing the same thing as we saw in 2008. She led in that count, until she did not. In other words, super-delegates, these are elected members that have a disproportionate effect in this, during the convention, They really should not be counted until then, becuase they can change their pledge.
The election now moves to a friendlier map for the Sanders campaign. HIs road is closing, but is far from over. Given this, we are still in the midst of a very competitive campaign and the Sanders people have raised a lot of money. The Clinton team is reportedly hitting a rough patch and according to Huffpost, she asked a former NRA fund raiser to raise money for her. He is a bundler . This is a purple fund raiser, they do indeed raise from anybody, and are quite mercenary. The optics though might be a problem.
Democrats need 2,383 and while Clinton is just over 25 percent on her way, Sanders is at 16 percent there. This is why this is still quite competitive. He needs to start performing, perhaps over performing the way he did in Minnesota and Colorado overnight, but his chances are not closed yet.
You can follow the counts at Vox.
Also remember, all states in the Democratic primary allocate their delegates proportionally. While most Super Delegates support Clinton right now, if they overrodeode the will of the voters, it could literally split the party. This is actually what happened in 2008, She had them, until they bowed to popular pressure.
Now to the Republican side of the house…
So far the Republicans have awarded a total of 2,472 delegates, OF those Donald Trump has earned 316, Red Cruz has won 226, Marco Rubio 106, John Katich 25 and Ben Carson 8. Unlike the Democrats, they do not have Super Delegates. A Republican needs 1, 237. That is an important number, and Trump has about 25 percent of what he needs.
What we expect to see over the next week or so, is for both Kasich and Carson to face extreme pressure to drop out. They have no map available to them, and the party insiders want to rally around Cruz, who is their best chance to stop Trump.
Also these numbers, if all these people remain in the game, may actually lead to a rarity in United States Politics, a brokered convention, That alone could be ugly beyond belief, Right now the Republican party is broken, between the base that is quite angry, and the party leaders.
We will see this continue and the only thing keeping this a race, and it is actually less close than the Democratic side, is the fact that Cruz convincingly won His home state of Texas and Oklahoma. Unlike the Democrats the map is now moving to winner take all states, So if Trump keeps winning this way, the map will quickly close down for both Cruz, who has the best chances mathematically, and Rubio.
We would like to add, on an edit that Carson has suspended his bid to the White House. CNN is reporting: He wrote on his campaign site:
I have decided not to attend the Fox News GOP Presidential Debate tomorrow night in Detroit. Even though I will not be in my hometown of Detroit on Thursday, I remain deeply committed to my home nation, America. I do not see a political path forward in light of last evening’s Super Tuesday primary results. However, this grassroots movement on behalf of “We the People” will continue. Along with millions of patriots who have supported my campaign for President, I remain committed to Saving America for Future Generations. We must not depart from our goals to restore what God and our Founders intended for this exceptional nation.
I appreciate the support, financial and otherwise, from all corners of America. Gratefully, my campaign decisions are not constrained by finances; rather by what is in the best interests of the American people.
I will discuss more about the future of this movement during my speech on Friday at CPAC in Washington, D.C.