Saturday Returns


March 6, 2016 (San Diego) The delegates have been assigned, and this time we will start wth the Democrats. Bernie Sanders (VT-I) Picked up more delegates after his victories in both Kansas and Nebraska. Maine is holding their caucus tonight. While Hillary Clinton got a very large victory in Louisiana. Though there were no shoutouts.

The Delegate count means that Clinton currently has 662 delegates and Sanders has 461 delegates. Again, we are not counting Super Delegates. This means that Clinton has picked 28 percent of the delegates needed to win the nomination and Sanders has picked 19 percent. This race still remains as tight as it did after Super Tuesday.

For democrats the Ohio primary might be the closing of a map for Sanders, but that depends on outcome. He does need to start winning in larger states and decisively so. That said, if he manages to make it beyond the March 15 Primary he is expected to narrow he gap.

This is why we are not counting super delegates. They can change their pledge all the way to the initial vote at the convention vote. If we were counting them, which a lot of media is, the map would be closed. We believe they should not be counted for this reason. Just for completeness, at this time Clinton has the lion share of super delegates, with 712, and Sanders has 22.

Republicans are a tad more complicated…

Donald J Trump has picked 382 delegates, while Cruz is at 300. Cruz did manage to close the gap and make this a credible race. Marco Rubio is at 128 and Governor John Kasich (R-OH) is at 35. We expect the core of the party to pressure both Rubio and Kasich to drop out and make this a two man race. This is one of the ways to stop Trump.

The nominee needs 1237 delegates to win, and 1612 are available. Florida will probably see the begging of the peel since that is when winner take all starts. This state has 99 delegates at play.

This is the percentage breakdown:

  • Trump 31 percent
  • Cruz      24 Percent
  • Rubio    10 percent
  • Kasich   3 percent

Vox is the source.

We expect that Florida will be a critical primary in the effort from the establishment to stop Trump. If Trump wins it, that it will signal a change. The other three states at play the same day are Missouri, Ohio and Illinois and both are also winner take all. This is on March 15. So if Trump wins most of these states his lead will open. At that point might be insurmountable.

Story corrected to reflect current percentages and numbers as of this morning

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