April 5, 2016 (San Diego) Senators Ted Cruz (TX-R) and Bernie Sanders (VT-I) won their respective primaries by large margins. This gave both a nice pledged delegate haul. In the case of Cruz this has undercut the Republican front runner momentum. Sanders has that momentum going to New York
So, how do those numbers look like? First the Republicans. Donald J Trump might get a delegate or two, since Republicans have a hybrid delegate allocation system in Wisconsin. But not enough to be significant as of this morning he has 757 delegates.
Cruz has won a total of 504 delegates, and Governor John Kasich has 144 delegates. This is where it gets interesting. 64 percent of delegates have been awarded. 832 still remain to be allocated. The goal of the republican establishment to blunt Trump might have succeeded. Republicans are likely heading to an open convention since neither candidate will reach the required 1237 delegates to win in a first vote. The last time this happened Ronald Reagan lost the floor fight to Gerald Ford.
There is some speculation starting as to what Trump would do. He has also threatened, once again. a third party run. The reality is that by the time the Republican Primary is over, it is hard to go third party. By the time the Convention is done, it is nearly impossible. So a third party run at this point is very unlikely. We are not saying he will not, just that it is unlikely. What this will do, if Trump does get the nomination, is further break apart the party.
Sanders and the Rest of the Campaign.
First the very procedural delegate counts. As a reminder, we are adding Super Delegates, since they will not really play a role until the Convention, and they all could switch who they support until the moment they sign on the dotted line.
Clinton has 1303 delegates, while Sanders has 1082. The difference right now stands at 221. At one point that was at 303. So the campaign tactics of surging later in the campaign season seem to be working for the Sanders campaign. Incidentally Sanders is expected to do well this Saturday in Wyoming. The path remains a difficult one, and after Wyoming it moves to New York and Pensilvania. The Democrats have closed primaries in these states, so analysts think Clinton will have an easier time.
Suffice it to say that if Sanders does well in New York, this means California will be in play. There are signs in the horizon that the Clinton campaign is worried about this. Last night the campaign actually told CNN that their new campaign tactic was to disqualify and destroy Sanders, and that they will work on party unity later. This means they are worried, and realize that the partly is likely splitting.
There is something else. While she leads in the delegate count, now we have a very real possibility that neither candidate will reach the 2383 delegates needed. So we will have a possibility of a contested Convention as well.
What we are seeing is a classic change election, with the establishment mounting a strong defense. on both sides. If both conventions are contested, this will lead to serious party issues on both sides.
For voters in California this is exciting though. It has been more than a generation, in fact since 1992, that our primary votes will mean something. The fact that both parties are still in play should be exciting for voters. It is also of interest that both front runners are having issues finishing this.