April 22, 2016 (San Diego) If you think the first 4 months of the year have been very hot, you are onto something. Even tough we had some El Nino rains, it’s been a particularly mild winter. Your perception is not off. According to Givin Smith of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies posted this estimate of the rise of temperatures on Twitter. He also said that he expects a record.
The National Centers for Environmental Information had these points about where are:
- • The March average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 2.20°F above the 20th century average of 54.9°F. This was the highest for March in the 1880–2016 record, surpassing the previous record set in 2015 by 0.54°F. March 2016 was also the highest monthly temperature departure among all months on record, at 0.02°F higher than the previous record set just last month. This also marks the 11th consecutive month a monthly global temperature record has been broken, the longest such streak in the 137-year record.
- – The March globally-averaged land surface temperature was 4.19°F above the 20th century average. This was the highest for March in the 1880–2016 record, surpassing the previous record set in 2008 by 0.77°F.
- – El Niño conditions continued to weaken in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean during March. However, the March globally averaged sea surface temperature remained 1.46&ndeg;F above the 20th century monthly average, similar to February. This was the highest global ocean temperature for March in the 1880–2016 record, surpassing the previous record set in 2015 by 0.32–F and tying as the sixth highest departure from average among all 1,635 months in the record. Record high sea surface temperatures across most of the North Indian Ocean, along with parts of the central equatorial and southwest Pacific contributed to the March warmth. The six highest monthly global ocean temperature departures have all occurred in the past six months.
Both organizations are predicting 2016 to be the hottest year on record. They are also pointing to the acceleration of the reverse loops that will speed up these processes. Climate Change is accelerating and San Diego has been feeling the effects now for years. The drought has been deeper and the El Nino patterns was not as well as it was in 1997. (This is the case for San Diego, it has been in Northern California.)
The reality is that the goals of the Paris conference, of only 2 degrees centigrade will be surpassed, and deeper and greater is needed if we are to protect the future. In fact, we might have already surpassed the tipping point in climate change. Or to be more precise, one of the many tipping points.
This portends for a dangerous time in our future. While El Nino has played a role, this already has made climate even more unpredictable, which was part of the modeling presented in the rather conservative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
This issue has barely penetrated the discussion between our political leaders running for the White House. Some mayors in cities already affected in red states are starting to take notice, But it is time to talk plainly. We already have climate refugees in the United States, among the Inuit in Alaska. Thousands have already died in storms such as Katrina and Sandy, as well as more frequent floods and droughts, as well as heat waves. It is time to talk about this issue, but most importantly act on it.