April 27, 2016 (San Diego) Well the delegate counts are in. Donald Trump, who stands at 43 delegates from a psychological barrier, and that is 1000 pledged delegates. He needs 1237 to get the nomination outright in the first vote, but when he gets beyond 1000 we believe the Republicans will finally cry uncle and recognize what we did a while ago. We had our temporary doubts, but for all intents and purposes, no other republican has a path. So Trump is likely going to be a nominee, or the republican party will emerge from Cleveland completely fractured. This is possible, and the next few days, if not weeks will be telling of this.
On the democratic side, Secretary Hillary Clinton is now at 1611 pledged delegates, and while we doubt she will reach the 2383 delegates before Philadelphia, the argument that Senator Bernie Sanders (VT-I) had that he had momentum is gone. He only won in one state last night and he is currently behind by 285 delegates. Yes, theoretically there is still a very difficult path for the nomination, but the level of victories required are ludicrously high, since this is s a proportional system. Though Sanders has vowed to stay in until every vote is cast.
We also believe that this year did reveal a very serious fissure in the democratic party, and we expect to grow in the coming years. The progressive wing of the party is gaining strength, but the revolt was put down and depending on how the winners act, will determine whether that fissure grows or not into a serious fracture. From the early hours, we expect this to grow into a fracture in the coming years.
While we did believe that the primary would actually matter this year for California, for the Democrats it is pretty much over. For the Republicans it still maters if the other two candidates remain in the race, even if they have no path to any kind of nomination. They could play spoiler to the first round in Cleveland.
So on to the general election, and it will be a Clinton-Trump context.