June 6, 2016 (San Diego) The AP has just declared Secretary Hillary Clinton the presumptive nominee. They are using the Pledged Delegates and the Super Delegates, Never mind the Democratic Party told the media not to do this months ago. By this we mean not adding the Super Delegates until July 25 when they officially vote in Philadelphia.
Here is the tweet.
@AP finds Clinton reached the number of delegates needed to clinch the Democratic nomination for president
This is a problem, We have elections tomorrow in California and this voter suppression effect has been known since at least 1980. This could affect turnout in San Diego. It is called the “band wagon effect,” and people will sit it out because of this. This was extremely obvious in the 1980 election between Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter, when the media called it for Reagan at 12:00 PST, and this collapsed turnout in California.
This piece is from 2012 in Huffpost, but the effect is well known.
To answer the burning question, researchers have long observed that people often conform to majority opinion (i.e. during every election, some people jump on the bandwagon and shift their preference to the leading candidate or the most popular policy).
During elections, and major public policy events, much of the media coverage focuses on the “horse race,” or fluctuations in support for a candidate or policy. Reporting on public opinion not only affects support, but levels of engagement: donations, volunteering and turnout. These bandwagon effects can make polls self-fulfilling prophecies; the predictions of the polls come to pass because the polls not only measure public opinion but also influence public opinion and engagement
The release of this data, the day before the election in CA will be detrimental to the election, and they were told by no less than Debbie Wassermann Shultz not to do this. We at Reporting San Diego will follow the instructions that at least seem to hold a sense of neutrality. We will not consider a candidate presumptive until they cross Pledged Delegates, highly unlikely, or when a candidate stands down and suspends their campaign.
Here is Wassermann Shultz in video
Oh and on edit, this is curious:
Hillary Clinton Retweeted AP Politics
@AP, but we’ve got primaries to win. CA, MT, NM, ND, NJ, SD, vote tomorrow!
This is Bernie Sanders campaign statement, we are posting it in full
SAN FRANCISCO – U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders’ spokesman, Michael Briggs, on Monday issued the following statement:
“It is unfortunate that the media, in a rush to judgement, are ignoring the Democratic National Committee’s clear statement that it is wrong to count the votes of superdelegates before they actually vote at the convention this summer.
“Secretary Clinton does not have and will not have the requisite number of pledged delegates to secure the nomination. She will be dependent on superdelegates who do not vote until July 25 and who can change their minds between now and then. They include more than 400 superdelegates who endorsed Secretary Clinton 10 months before the first caucuses and primaries and long before any other candidate was in the race.
“Our job from now until the convention is to convince those superdelegates that Bernie is by far the strongest candidate against Donald Trump.”
It goes without saying, VOTE!
This story has been updated three times to reflect changing information.