Could Trump Still Win?

Analysis by Reporting San Diego

Oct 10, 2016 (San Diego) this has been a crazy election season. Last year we predicted an abnormal cycle and were not surprised Trump won the Republican nomination. I know major media is calling Trump’s run over. His own party is splitting, with Speaker Paul Ryan declaring that he will not campaign with Trump. He also said that it is up to members to follow their conscience and do as they may. His goal is to protect the House majority. 

In any normal year we would declare this election all but over, and major media is already doing it. Hillary Clinton has won, for all intents and purposes well, not so fast. She is opening her lead in national polls, but no presidential election is decided nationally. We have the feeling that there is a large silent majority that is not admitting to pollsters they will be voting for Trump. We are not talking in California. The election will not be decided in the Golden State. This silent voting block lives in the rust belt. They are the people who have seen jobs disappear. They have seen their middle class lifestyle disappear, and their children’s lives not be better than theirs. 

Then there are the millennials. These are the same who filled stadiums to listen to Senator Bernie Sanders. They were essential to the Obama coalition, and more than one is planning to stay home, vote third party, or quite frankly hope a vote for Trump is a way to blow the whole system. It is a case of careful what you wish for, but it is what it is. They see the system as corrupt, and see no other way. 

So those who are discounting the election of Trump to the Presidency because of a pretty horrific recording, are the same ones who have been discounting Trump all along. It is not just the economy, but also fears that have bubbled up into the surface. So no, we are not discounting him. We are not ready to do that until either candidate crosses 270 electoral votes on election night. It is one of those years when making predictions will make fools of us all. But one thing has to be said. Trump is the product of economic policies that have led to these fears and insecurities. Nor is Trump a unique American phenomena. It is part of the same trends as BREXIT, and the rise of the European right. 

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