Jan 19. 2017 (WASHINGTON) The Congressional Budget Office has released an estimate of the effect of the partial repeal of the Affordable Care Act, and it is not pretty. They scored H.R 3762 which was passed but never signed by outgoing President Barack Obama.
This act would repeal the portions of the ACA that create the mandate for all people to have insurance, and the subsidies. H.R 3765 would have left in place insurance market reforms.
According to the report, the number of uninsured people would increase by 18 million in “the first new plan year following enactment of the bill.” It goes further to state that once the Medicaid expansion is removed, that would increase by 27 million, reaching 32 million by 2026.
Premiums are expected to go up by anywhere from 20 to 25 percent. Then it would “reach about 50 percent in the year following the elimination of the Medicaid expansion and the marketplace subsidies.” By 2026 all premiums would double.
In a nutshell, if you believed your premiums will go down, given how this bill scored, likely they will not. This is the real full picture of this. The effects on the economy of having a sicker workforce, as well as a lower number of people insured, are well understood. Sicker work forces, lead to less productivity. Moreover, as we have written before, repealing the ACA will lead to over 4 million unemployed nationwide in the first year after repeal.